AL West: Have the Rangers mortgaged their future?

Baseball Betting Lines

08/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Since acquiring former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee a few weeks ago, the Texas Rangers have been quite busy on the trade front.

The front office did not stop after acquiring Lee, as veterans Cristian Guzman, Bengie Molina and Jorge Cantu were also brought on board. Of all the trade deadline activity across the league, the Rangers came away as big winners. When they resume play Tuesday night in Seattle, they'll do so with a cushy eight-game lead in the American League West, and looking to widen the gap.

Only time will tell if all of those additions end up yielding a long-awaited World Series title for Texas and its fan base. Now that the dust has cleared from a flurry of roster moves, let's take a look at what's left down on the farm for the Rangers.

To land Cliff Lee, the organization had to part with first baseman Justin Smoak, the 11th overall selection of the 2008 draft, in addition to infielder Matt Lawson and right-handers Josh Lueke (1-1, 3.86, 2 SV) and Blake Beavan, who was the 17th overall pick in the '07 draft. Although Smoak has been slow to adjust to big league pitching, it took a while for the front office to come around to the idea of letting him go. Team executives also weighed heavily on including Beavan in the deal.

Cantu was brought in to split time with Mitch Moreland at first base. To get him, the team parted with right-handers Omar Poveda and Evan Reed. With second baseman Ian Kinsler on the disabled list with a strained groin, Texas lured Guzman from the Washington Nationals for Double-A right-handers Ryan Tatusko (9-2, 2.97 ERA) and Tanner Roark (10-5, 4.20).

A month ago, the Rangers traded reliever Chris Ray and minor league pitcher Michael Main to the San Francisco Giants for 36-year-old catcher Bengie Molina. And just this past Saturday, with the minor league cupboard running bare, fellow catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia was shipped to Boston for right- handed prospect Roman Mendez, first baseman Chris McGuiness, a player to be named later and $350,000 in cash. That extra cash, according to general manager Jon Daniels, will be used to sign a few extra draft picks from June's First-Year Player Draft.

"We like the players and the total package we're getting back," Daniels said. "We gave up a lot of good players and we felt we needed to do something to put something back in our system."

After making a concerted effort to revitalize the farm system a few years ago, the Rangers have now sent a few of those prospects out of town in order to try and win now. Still, a few of the organization's most prized prospects remain, including Martin Perez and Tanner Scheppers, among others. If the Rangers eventually reach the Promised Land this year, losing so many prospects will be a bit easier to swallow.

OAKLAND'S BAILEY NOT QUITE READY TO RETURN

When Andrew Bailey strained a rib muscle last week, the A's closer had hoped to be ready for the start of Friday's series opener against the division- leading Rangers. However, manager Bob Geren said this week that Bailey's condition is improving, though he will likely not begin throwing until later in the week. If all goes well, he could still rejoin the team Saturday or Sunday.

"He's reported feeling better, but he hasn't done much yet," Geren said on Monday. "He's not going to throw for at least a few more days and we'll go from there."

Thanks to back-to-back complete game outings by starters Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez over the weekend, Oakland's bullpen is well rested.

Meanwhile, starting pitcher Ben Sheets will have his elbow surgery next week in Dallas. It's the same flexor tendon operation that was performed in the winter of '09 and caused him to miss all of last season. The 32-year-old Sheets, who was signed to a one-year, $10 million deal in the offseason, could wind up missing most or all of the 2011 season. He was 4-9 with a 4.53 ERA, marking his career-worst record and highest ERA since his rookie year in 2001.

BOURJOS ERA BEGINS IN ANAHEIM

After acquiring starter Dan Haren and infielder Alberto Calaspo last month, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are ready to add some more help from in- house. According to FanHouse, top prospect Peter Bourjos will join the team Tuesday night in Baltimore for the beginning of a three-game set with the Orioles.

Manager Mike Scioscia has watched his team leave too many plays on the field, and too many runners on the basepaths. Last year, three Angels' regulars hit .300 or better, and another five hit at least .290. This year, Torii Hunter paces the lineup with a .285 average.

"There are a lot of guys who are underperforming and it's something (hitting coach Mickey (Hatcher) has looked at closely to find some explanation," manager Mike Scioscia said. "Some guys just haven't gotten into their comfort level. We'll keep moving forward trying to evaluate this and try to find better options to improve ourselves and we'll continue to do that. There are definitely some guys (in the Minors) we're looking at to make us a better team."

Bourjos caught fire at Triple-A Salt Lake in July, hitting .445 (53-for-119) and setting a Pacific Coast League record for hits in a month with 53. In 26 games, Bourjos compiled five triples, seven doubles, five home runs, 21 RBI, 35 runs scored and seven stolen bases. He also leads the PCL in putouts as a center fielder.

The 23-year-old Bourjos is known for his speed on the basepaths and defensive prowess in center fielder. He is expected to man one of the corner outfield spots with the big club.

STUMBLING MARINERS SEND SMOAK DOWN FOR MORE WORK

For the Seattle Mariners (39-67), there has certainly been no addition by subtraction since the departure of ace pitcher Cliff Lee. Losers of seven straight, Seattle is starting to challenge Baltimore (32-73) for the worst record in the American League.

Even Ichiro Suzuki has struggled, as he hit .246 in July to snap a streak of nine consecutive months in which he hit at least .300. Unfortunately for the M's, the hits keep coming.

First baseman Justin Smoak, who was the linchpin to that Lee deal, was sent back to the minors over the weekend to rediscover his stroke at Triple-A Tacoma.

Save for a recent 5-for-7 stretch with a couple of home runs in back-to-back games against the Angels, it has been a humbling process for Smoak to try and live up to the expectations set upon him. But in 63 at-bats with Seattle, he was hitting only .159 with five RBI.

"You want to show everybody what you are capable of doing, and sometimes I feel I get caught up in that and end up trying to do too much instead of going out there, playing the game and having fun," Smoak said. "I probably never have worked harder than I have this year, You would think I'd be doing a lot better than what I am. I give myself credit for that, but maybe I've overdone it a little bit."

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.