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07/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez's quest for his 600th career home run resumes on the road this evening, when the superstar third baseman and his New York Yankee teammates start up a seven-game trek with the first of four consecutive meetings with the Cleveland Indians from Progressive Field.
Rodriguez, vying to become the seventh player in major league history to reach the 600-homer milestone, has failed to go deep in three straight contests since belting No. 599 in a 10-4 home victory over Kansas City on Thursday. The three-time American League MVP has still been productive at the plate, however, and had a hand in yesterday's 10-4 win over the Royals by collecting a pair of hits and knocking in three runs.
The perennial All-Star had an RBI double and a run-scoring single in the win, and got his final RBI of the day when he was in struck in the left hand and wrist by a pitch with the bases loaded in the eighth inning. Rodriguez did leave the game afterward, but is expected to be okay for tonight's matchup.
Rodriguez went 8-for-17 and drove in seven runs during the four-game series with the Royals, in which New York won three times, and is batting .400 (12- for-30) with 10 RBI over his last seven outings.
Curtis Granderson provided the power for the Yankees in Sunday's triumph, belting a pair of solo homers and scoring three times. Robinson Cano added two hits and a pair of RBI and Derek Jeter went 3-for-4 with a run-scoring double to help starter Phil Hughes register his 12th victory of the season.
Hughes (12-3) allowed three runs via a pair of Kansas City homers over the first 5 1/3 innings, exiting after the game was held up for over 2 1/2 hours by heavy rain in the top of the sixth.
"I can do a lot better. I felt like I was starting to get into a groove a little bit when the rains came," Hughes said afterward. "I was kind of disappointed, but it was a step in the right direction and I'll just look to improve."
Rodriguez owns a .375 (9-for-24) average with one career homer against Jake Westbrook, who'll be taking the mound tonight for perhaps the final time in a Cleveland uniform. The veteran right-hander has been the subject of trade rumors as Saturday's non-waiver deadline approaches.
Westbrook has drawn some interest from contending clubs with a decent bounce- back season after missing all of the 2009 campaign and most of 2008 recovering from elbow surgery. The 32-year-old has posted a respectable 6-6 record with a 4.74 ERA in 20 starts for the AL Central cellar-dwelling Tribe and has tossed at least six innings in six of his past eight trips to the mound.
He wasn't overly sharp his last time out, however, issuing a season-high five walks and surrendering four runs over six frames in a loss at Minnesota this past Wednesday. Westbrook had won his initial start following the All-Star break after holding Detroit to two runs in 5 2/3 innings back on July 16.
The one-time Yankee will be taking on his former club for the first time since the 2007 AL Division Series and has a 2-4 record with a 5.29 ERA in 10 regular-season appearances (seven starts) versus New York.
The Yankees, who enter this series with a three-game lead on Tampa Bay for first place in the AL East, will hand the ball to Javier Vazquez in the opener. The offseason acquisition has pitched well for the Bronx Bombers after a rough beginning to the season, as he's compiled a 5-2 record with a 3.10 ERA in nine starts since June 1.
Vazquez wasn't real good in his most recent assignment, though, despite picking up his eighth win of the season. The right-hander allowed five runs and a pair of homers in a five-inning stint against the Angels on Wednesday, but received a wealth of offensive support in a 10-6 verdict.
The 34-year-old has yet to face the Indians this season but has plenty of experience against them, having spent three years with fellow AL Central member Chicago from 2006-08. Vazquez is 7-5 with a 4.40 ERA over 16 lifetime starts against Cleveland and is 4-3 with a 3.98 ERA in nine Progressive Field appearances.
The Indians will be continuing a seven-game homestand that began with Friday's 4-2 victory over Tampa Bay. The playoff-hopeful Rays rebounded to win the next two bouts, however, and claimed a 4-2 decision in Sunday's rubber match.
Tribe starter Justin Masterson (3-9) gave up all four Tampa runs (three earned), three of which came on a Reid Brignac homer in the top of the second inning. He lasted 6 1/3 frames and permitted just five hits while striking out five.
"I look at it as a slider that forgot to slide," Masterson said about the pitch to Brignac. "It turned out to be a terrible cutter like 85 (miles per hour)."
Travis Hafner went 4-for-4 at the plate for Cleveland, with Carlos Santana and Andy Marte driving in the team's only runs.
New York took three of four games from the Indians at Yankee Stadium back in May and has prevailed in seven of the last nine clashes between the teams. In their only visit to Cleveland last season, the Yankees won three of four tests from the Tribe.
<< Appalachian State, Villanova stars headline All-America team
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Appalachian State may have lost two-time
Walter Payton Award winner Armanti Edwards, but it boasts a national-best
seven players on The Sportsbook Betting Lines/Fathead.com Football Championship
Subdivision Preseason A
<< Phillies go for four-game sweep of Rockies
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies will try to complete a four-game
sweep of the Colorado Rockies this afternoon at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia won its fourth straight game on Sunday, as Jimmy Rollins tied the
contest and then
<< Angels get Dan Haren and a tree falls in the forest
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Yawn.
That is exactly the first thought that went through my head when my I-Phone
beeped on Sunday night with the news that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim had
acquired Dan Haren from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Joe Sau
<< Former free agent pitching bust having a big season
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - CC Sabathia, Carl Pavano, Justin Verlander,
David Price, John Lester. Tell me which name doesn't belong on this list.
If you said Carl Pavano, you normally wouldn't get much of an argument, at
least until this
Wounded Tigers kick off road trip versus Rays >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers begin what could be a make-or-break
week-long road trip for the American League Central contenders tonight at
Tropicana Field, where the struggling and injury-plagued club takes on the
Tampa Bay Rays in a c
Reds head to Milwaukee to battle surging Brewers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Reds try to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers for
the seventh straight time when the National League Central rivals open a
three-game set this evening at Miller Park.
The Reds, who swept a two-game set from the B
Twins, Liriano aim to keep rolling in Kansas City >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins had everything working on Sunday as
they pulled even closer to the top spot in the American League Central.
They'll try to continue that tonight behind Francisco Liriano, who seeks a
third straight winn
ChiSox seeking to get back on track at Mariners' expense >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A subpar road trip has tightened things atop the American
League Central for the first-place Chicago White Sox. A return home against a
favorable opponent could help the club get back on track.
Chicago seeks a fifth consec
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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