Aqueduct begins stakes for three-year-olds

Horseracing Betting Lines

01/06/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Horsemen with horses stabled in the Northeast can begin thinking intently about where to run their three-year-olds leading to the Triple Crown races. This Saturday the first event at Aqueduct for Kentucky Derby hopefuls takes place with the running of the $150,000 Count Fleet Stakes.

"I think a $150,000 race puts you on the map, and this is a race that can be a stepping stone," said Art Magnuson, assistant to trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, whose Alpha is the 4-5 morning-line favorite in the mile and 70 yard Count Fleet. "We do think about the future with Alpha, and hope he's a Derby-type horse."

A son of 2006 champion three-year-old colt Bernardini, Alpha is owned by Godolphin Racing and has drawn post five in the seven-horse field. The colt has earned $90,000 in three starts, highlighted by a second-place finish behind Union Rags in the Champagne. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November the colt disappointed by finishing 11th to Hansen with favorite Union Rags finishing a head behind in second.

"We sent him to New York last Wednesday, and he worked very well this morning," said McLaughlin on Monday about Alpha who will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. "We have several three-year-olds we think highly of, including Alpha and Consortium and some others who haven't started yet, and we're trying to split them up. We have had great success in New York with our runners during the winter. At the Breeders' Cup, he lost it in the gate, and we're hoping he will step up off that effort. He's a nice horse."

The 4-1 second choice is Chuck Russo's Il Villano who has Jose Flores riding from the inside post. Trained by Susan Crowell, the gray colt is the winner of three straight including the Lord Henribee Stakes at Aqueduct on November 6 and Southampton Stakes at Parx Racing on December 6. The three-year-old has banked $125,300, the most of the seven starters.

The only other stakes winner in the Count Fleet is Shkspeare Shaliya who won the Pilgrim on the turf at Belmont Park on October 2. The colt will break from the outside post with Jose Valdivia Jr. in the saddle.

"I have been wanting to try this horse on dirt," said trainer Doodnauth Shivmangal about the 10-1 shot. "I'm an Aqueduct person and I am a New Yorker; on top of that, he has a good turn of foot, and has Clever Trick in his breeding, which is why I chose this spot. The distance is a little short for him, but my whole dream is to give him a shot and see what he can do on dirt."

Shkspeare Shaliya last started in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf where he finished ninth at 9-1 in the 14-horse field. With two wins in four starts the colt has earned $96,700 and is the 122 pound highweight.

From the rail out here is the complete field for the Count Fleet: Il Villano, Jose Flores, 4-1; How Do I Win, Cornelio Velasquez, 12-1; Whistleblower, Ariel Smith, 20-1; Stephanoatsee, Junior Alvarado, 6-1; Alpha, Ramon Dominguez, 4-5; Speightscity, David Cohen, 8-1 and Shkspeare Shaliyah, Jose Valdivia Jr., 10-1.

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Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.


What Is the Point Spread?

What are Sports Betting Point Spreads?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read Point Spreads

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

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