Are the Heat all they are cracked up to be?

Basketball Betting Lines

02/03/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - To most NBA fans, Miami is the big time.

That's what happens when LeBron James and Chris Bosh decide to join Dwyane Wade on a "superteam" that plays on the shores of Biscayne Bay and the shadow of South Beach.

But Miami, at least in the real world, isn't as "big time" as you might imagine. According to the Nielsen Company, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale television market is only the 16th largest in the country, one spot ahead of Denver and well behind places like Houston and Detroit, never mind New York, LA and Chicago.

Meanwhile Forbes just labeled Miami as the "most miserable city" in all of America, citing the housing crisis that has devastated the city with 47 percent of homeowners sitting on underwater mortgages. I'm not sure that measuring stick is worthy of Scientific America but foreclosures, according to Forbes, have been rampant with 364,000 properties in the area entering the process since 2008.

To outsiders that only think about the glitz and glamour of Miami Beach or still can picture Don Johnson and Philip Michael Thomas screaming across the bay in a speedboat, that's probably a surprise.

Which got me thinking, maybe the city's basketball team has some smoke and mirrors to it also.

When Miami raced out to a 5-0 start this season one national observer made the ridiculous comment that "this team might win 60" in the lockout-shortened 66- game season. Math is about to prove that pundit a liar unless LeBron and Company rattle off 43 straight to end the season.

If you take a step back and look at things objectively, even after an impressive 99-79 win against upstart Philadelphia, you'll see the Heat for what they really are, a very good team with three great individual players that struggle to play together at times.

Listening to Erik Spoelstra before the game, I couldn't help but be reminded of Lou Holtz, the ex-Notre Dame coach that would talk up every team he was playing whether it was No. 1 Miami or the Little Sisters of the Poor.

"They have as many athletes as we do," the Heat coach said when talking about the Sixers, "maybe more."

In truth, Miami is a horrible matchup problem for the Sixers and has now beaten them nine straight times. While Philadelphia does have a lot of athletes, they simply don't have the skill and perhaps more importantly the length of Miami's big three, making this an untenable matchup for the 76ers.

In fact, if styles make fights -- the Sixers are Marvis Frazier to the Heat's Mike Tyson. Philly lost by 20 points tonight after losing by 21 at Miami on Jan. 21. The team's other five losses are by a combined 24 points.

In the end, Miami probably does deserve its spot as the favorite to win an NBA title. But to call that a foregone conclusion or expect some kind of dynasty in South Florida is more than a stretch.

The Heat certainly have the game's best individual player in James, who took over things tonight late in the third quarter and finished with 19 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists, but as great as "The King" is, we're nine years into his career and it's time to admit he's never going to have the killer instinct of a big-time closer like a Michael Jordan or Larry Bird.

"I've watched him play without Dwyane Wade and he's a totally different player," Charles Barkley, a guy who knows a thing or two about being a superstar, said when talking about James. "I'm going to challenge him to play like that all the time. He's the best player in the world but for some reason, when Dwyane is on the court, he takes a back seat."

Wade, remains the best "Robin" in today's NBA but his reckless style has already taken a toll and the nagging injuries seem to pop up with greater regularity each and every season. Meanwhile, Chris Bosh has upped his game during his sophomore season in Miami but he's still not the type of intimidating force you need at the defensive end for a team with no true center.

After "Miami Thrice" the talent on Spoelstra's club drops off the table.

"The Heat are not that deep of a team," former NBA GM Steve Kerr recently said, "but the ability of LeBron and Wade to take over games on their own allows Miami to offset various loses throughout the lineup."

It's hard to argue with Kerr. Joel Anthony and Mario Chalmers have developed into nice NBA role players that bring young legs and energy to the dance but ask yourself how many other NBA could afford to start them?

Shane Battier and Udonis Haslem add veteran leadership and toughness but both players have seen their better days, while Mike Miller is an excellent pure shooter and a key cog as a weak-side threat off the double team but he's also as one-dimensional as they come and Pat Riley gave serious thoughts to amnestying him.

The rest of Riley's roster is filled with players that could just as easily be featured in a D-League media guide with the possible exception of rookie guard Norris Cole, who has flashed an upside with impressive quickness.

"When you have guys that can dominate the game like those three (James, Wade and Bosh) can it doesn't allow other players to get into the flow of the game," former player and current analyst Greg Anthony said. "It's important that they figure out balance."

It's not like this is the first time three great players have toiled together. Magic had Kareem and James Worthy for a good part of his run in Hollywood but there was still room for borderline stars like Norm Nixon, Byron Scott and Michael Cooper.

Bird had Kevin McHale and Dennis Johnson among others and still worked in Robert Parish and Cornbread Maxwell when he was winning titles in Beantown.

The last championship team here in Philly was loaded with Moses Malone, Julius Erving and Andrew Toney along with borderline Hall of Famers Maurice Cheeks and Bobby Jones.

Keep it closer to this generation and understand San Antonio has three future Hall of Famers in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili that all fit like a glove around solid role players.

"When you watch Miami, they play with arrogance," Anthony continued. "They feel like they can turn it on and off like a light switch and win a game whenever they want. That lack of intensity is one of the reasons why, at times, they struggle."

On Friday, they were able to turn it on. With the game deadlocked at 61 late in the third quarter, Thaddeus Young blew a bunny at the basket and James decided that it was time to take over. First he drilled a 20-foot step back jumper and followed that with a man's offensive rebound and a finger roll to end the third quarter scoring

Less than nine minutes later Philadelphia was down by 23 and looking for the locomotive that just ran them down.

You saw that arrogance bite the Heat, however, 48 hours earlier in Milwaukee when Miami raced out to a 40-23 lead after the opening 12 minutes. James made 8-of-9 shots from the floor in the first quarter of that one, including going 3-for-3 from beyond the arc as the Heat shot 82.4 percent in the opening frame and made all five of their three-pointers.

Satiated, the Heat took their foot off the gas and Brandon Jennings came back to bite them. In fact, it got so bad that Miami didn't get any closer than eight points over the final 4 1/2 minutes of regulation.

The Heat are a good, at times great team, but they're also a flawed bunch that leaves the door ajar for a host of other NBA contenders.

Friday they were at the best with LeBron running the show next to Wade with Bosh alongside Miller and Haslem up front.

"It's been a long time coming." James said when talking about that lineup. "We've played that lineup a few times in the postseason last year but it wasn't healthy. It's great to have that lineup out there now that we're healthy, and me and D-Wade are able to handle the ball.

"That's what it's about, just camaraderie and teamwork."

If only it were about that every night.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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