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07/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Many assume that the Phillies will be in the hunt for pitching prior to the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of this month. That need will be lessened a bit if Joe Blanton can get on track.
Blanton will try to pitch Philadelphia to a second victory in a row this evening when his club continues a four-game set versus the Cincinnati Reds at Citizens Bank Park.
After beginning the season on the disabled list because of an oblique injury, Blanton has gone 3-5 with a 6.27 earned run average in 12 starts and has allowed at least three runs in every outing this year. He was able to lock down consecutive wins near the end of June, but has posted two straight no- decisions, including on Sunday versus the Pirates. The right-hander gave up five runs on six hits without a walk and seven strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings of his team's 8-5 setback.
"Kind of the way it's gone for me," Blanton told Philadelphia's website. "[I] was throwing the ball great and still find a way to give up three or five runs. That's hard to take."
Blanton won his first two career decisions versus the Reds before getting a no-decision in a June 29 victory for the Phillies. The 29-year-old gave up three runs over 7 2/3 innings of a game his club won 9-6.
Despite blowing two leads after starter Kyle Kendrick left Thursday's series opener, including one by closer Brad Lidge on Miguel Cairo's pinch-hit double in the ninth, the Phillies claimed a 4-3 triumph in 12 innings thanks to Brian Schneider's walk-off solo homer against the Reds' Jordan Smith.
"You don't go up there trying to hit a home run," Schneider said. "I was just trying to hit the ball hard."
Shane Victorino had three hits and hit his career-high-tying 14th homer of the season for the Phillies, who won for just the third time in nine games but did move within 5 1/2 games of idle Atlanta for first place in the National League East.
On the same day he locked down a spot on the NL All-Star roster through the league's Final Vote contest, Joey Votto hit his league-leading 22nd homer and scored the game-tying run on Cairo's hit. However, the Reds fell to 5-3 on an 11-game road trip that closes out their first half.
Cincinnati, which still leads St. Louis by three games for first place in the NL Central, hopes that rookie Mike Leake can build off his last start as he held the Cubs to three runs and eight hits over six innings of a 14-3 victory on Sunday. The 22-year-old was 0-1 with a 6.85 ERA in four starts prior to that outing but did allow two homers for the third time in five starts.
That includes an outing versus the Phillies and Blanton in which Schneider and Wilson Valdez connected on three-run homers off the right-handed Arizona State product. Leake got a no-decision in that outing, his first ever versus Philadelphia.
Leake is 6-1 with a 3.38 ERA on the season and 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in six road starts.
The Phillies and Reds have split four meetings this season after Cincinnati took two of three at home earlier this week, but the Philadelphia has still won 11 of 16 and 16 of the last 24 meetings in the series.
<< Red Sox resume trek at Toronto's Rogers Centre
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After beginning a six-game road trip with three straight
losses to one division rival, the Boston Red Sox head to Toronto in search of
some momentum. The Rogers Centre is a good place to look for some.
The Red Sox, h
<< Angels visit A's in clash of slumping division foes
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of struggling AL West inhabitants get together this
evening in Oakland, as the Athletics and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim kick
off a three-game series from the Coliseum.
The Angels have dropped four straight and th
<< Twins have sights set on dethroning Tigers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins will try and gain some ground in the
American League Central this weekend, as they close the first half of their
season with a three-game set against the division-leading Detroit Tigers at
Comeric
<< Yanks to take on Mariners as Lee rumors swirl
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As the old adage goes, "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em."
In this case for the New York Yankees, it has been reported they are
interested in acquiring the services of Seattle Mariners left-hander Cliff
Lee, who is schedule
Decision 2010: James leaves Cleveland behind >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - LeBron James made the right decision the wrong way.
I first realized James had officially lost touch with reality on Wednesday
when the ESPN press release announcing "The Decision," the hour-long vehicle
in which the NBA's
Norman withdraws from British Open Championship >>
St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Greg Norman has withdrawn from next
week's British Open Championship at St. Andrews.
Norman, a two-time winner of the Claret Jug, has been unable to get back into
competitive form after shoulder su
AHL extends president's contract >>
Springfield, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - American Hockey League president David
Andrews has agreed to terms on a contract extension that will keep him in his
position through June, 2015.
"All of us with an interest in the American Hockey L
Rangers re-sign D Girardi >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Rangers have re-signed defenseman
Daniel Girardi to an undisclosed contract.
The 26-year-old registered six goals and 18 points with a minus-two rating
over a full 82-game schedule in 2009-1
Sportsbook betting odds favor Europe in Ryder Cup
September 19, – Despite holding a decided edge in the all-time series, with 24 wins, 2 ties and 10 losses, Team USA is the underdog again heading into the Ryder Cup in Kidare, Ireland this weekend, according to MySportsbook.com. The Europeans have captured four of the past five editions, including their largest victory ever, an 18 ½ to 9 ½ thumping in Michigan in 2004. Current Ryder Cup betting odds favor the Europeans to continue their winning ways; they are a 4-5 bet to take the title, compared to 6-5 for the Americans.
Despite being knocked out in the first round of World Match play by Shaun Micheel, Tiger Woods is predicted to lead the US charge and be their highest point scorer for the week, with odds listed at 9-4 that he outpoints all other American players, including Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson and Chris DiMarco to name a few. Team USA has four relatively unknown players on the roster but all four are 2007 tournament winners and have posted some of season’s best performances, each earning over $1.5 million on the PGA TOUR. They include Zach Johnson, Vaughan Taylor, JJ Henry and Brett Wetterich.
The experienced European squad includes the likes of Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Padraig Harrington, Jose Maria Olazabal and Darren Clarke, who’s emotions will be tested after the passing of his wife to a battle with cancer. Donald and Garcia are in particularly good form and each is a 5-1 bet to lead the European squad in the points race. Donald has proven he can go head to head with Woods at a major event after a run for the $1.2 million purse at the PGA Championship. Garcia’s Ryder Cup credentials prove he’s ready for battle too.
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Ryder Cup Odds| Europe Tie USA |
4-5 10-1 6-5 |
| Tiger Woods Jim Furyk Phil Mickelson Chris DiMarco David Toms Stewart Cink Chad Campbell Scott Verplank Zach Johnson Vaughan Taylor JJ Henry Brett Wetterich |
9-4 4-1 5-1 7-1 8-1 12-1 15-1 15-1 25-1 30-1 30-1 50-1 |
| Sergio Garcia Luke Donald Padraig Harrington Colin Montgomerie Darren Clarke David Howell Lee Westwood Paul Casey Henrik Stenson Jose Maria Olazabal Paul McGinley Robert Karlsson |
5-1 5-1 6-1 13-2 8-1 9-1 9-1 11-1 12-1 12-1 20-1 25-1 |
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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