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07/04/2009 - Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Raburn's RBI single in the 16th proved to be the game-winner as the Detroit Tigers took an 11-9 win over the Minnesota Twins in a 16-inning contest to open a three-get set at the Metrodome.
Placido Polanco went 3-for-8 with three RBI and two runs scored and Marcus Thames had a two-run home run in the win for the Tigers, who had dropped four of six coming into the game.
Lucas French threw 4 2/3 innings in the start for Detroit and was charged with two runs on six hits with two walks and three strikeouts. Freddy Dolsi (1-0) got the win for throwing three innings and giving up two runs -- one earned -- on four hits.
"It was an exciting game, obviously," said Tigers manager Jim Leyland. "Two really good teams going at it bunched up at the top of the division. Give them a lot of credit (for) battling back, being down like they were. It wasn't the best of games, but we won it, and there was a lot of good things in the game and some bad things."
Denard Span went 5-for-8 with two RBI and a run scored while Joe Crede and Delmon Young each hit a solo home run in the loss for the Twins, who had won three of four coming into the game.
Kevin Slowey started on the mound for Minnesota, but was pulled after just three innings as he was tagged for six runs on five hits. R.A. Dickey (1-1) was tagged with the loss as he gave up four runs on nine hits over three innings of work.
"I think more than anything it's concerning because it's in my right wrist," Slowey, who was placed on the 15-day disabled list following the game with a strained right wrist, said. "It's in a pretty significant area, and we'll look at it Monday and go from that. It was something that affected how I held onto the ball. It was very uncomfortable."
In the top of the 16th with one out, Ramon Santiago singled and Curtis Granderson followed with a double. Polanco then put the Tigers ahead with an RBI and, after Miguel Cabrera fouled out, Raburn singled to right for a two- run lead. Magglio Ordonez then singled to center to score Polanco for an 11-8 lead.
The Twins got a run in the bottom of the frame on a RBI groundout off the bat of Michael Cuddyer, but that was the second out of the inning and Crede grounded out to end the game.
Detroit jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the second inning on a two-run triple by Josh Anderson followed by a sacrifice fly from Gerald Laird.
The Tigers tacked on three more runs in the third inning. Granderson led off with a single and came around home on a double by Polanco. Thames later smacked a pitch over the left field wall for a 6-0 lead.
Minnesota got a run in the bottom of the third on an RBI single from Justin Morneau, but Detroit got it back in the fourth on a solo home run off the bat of Laird.
Young made it a 7-2 game in the bottom of the fourth thanks to a solo home run, his third of the year.
In the sixth, the Twins rallied in to tie the game. Crede started the inning by launching a pitch over the wall in left. With men on first and second, Span legged out a triple and then came home when Brendan Harris followed with a triple.
After Fu-Te Ni took the mound, a sacrifice fly off the bat of Joe Mauer made it a 7-7 game.
In the top of the 14th, Laird led off with a single and moved to second on a sacrifice bunt from Santiago. After Granderson flied out, Polanco laced a single up the middle to give Detroit a one-run lead.
However, the Twins didn't go quitely in the bottom of the frame as back-to- back singles from Joe Mauer and Morneau to start the frame was followed by a single from Michael Cuddyer that went off the glove of third baseman Brandon Inge to tie the game. On the play, Morneau was thrown out at third and Dolsi retired the final two batters to keep the game going.
Game Notes
This was the longest game of the season for both teams...Despite the loss, Minnesota still leads the season-series, 4-2...There was a total of 35 hits in the game...Detroit left 10 men on base while Minnesota stranded 12...To replace Slowey in the rotation, the team recalled pitcher Anthony Swarzak from Triple-A Rochester.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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